Monday, March 28, 2011

ICC WC2011 – XIII – QF3 and 4

What does one say about the third and fourth quarter-finals ? One produced a massive upset and the other an unexpected thumping.

New Zealand vs South Africa

South Africa had won one close game against India and lost another to England in the group stages, so while the chokers tag was not quite on display it was not buried either. South Africa chose the worst possible way to remind the cricketing world about it in their quarter-final match. As a professional outfit New Zealand would of course have been playing to win, however even they would have admitted that South Africa were firm favourites in their match-up and if they had run South Africa close it would not have been a bad result for New Zealand. What happened was straight out of a nightmare which every South African cricket fan must be having when their team plays in a crunch match.

New Zealand batted first and while they never dominated, they got to a total which required South Africa to put on a reasonable batting display. The South African bowling probably under-performed but still a modest New Zealand total of 221, thanks primarily due to a battling innings of 81 from Jesse Ryder and good support from Ross Taylor, was not meant to seriously challenge the South African batting. South Africa started badly with Amla being desperately unlucky to see the ball balloon to Vettori off McCullum's boot. Smith hung around without looking convincing but Kallis was looking good and the target was being steadily run down. When Smith got out and AB de Villiers walked in, many would have thought that now at least we would see some decent batting. Kallis and de Villiers were in no trouble and the asking rate was well within control when Kallis got a real rush of blood and holed out in inexplicable fashion (with Oram taking a great catch in the deep off Southee). Even then with just over a 100 to get and over 25 overs and 7 wickets in hand, only the most foolhardy would have predicted anything other than a South African victory.

New Zealand applied some pressure by deploying extra fielders inside the circle and given that South Africa were seeking to win without taking risks, scoring suddenly became difficult. In this environment, Duminy and Botha managed to get themselves bowled and de Plessis probably made the blunder of the innings in causing de Villiers to get run out. Now there was real pressure and the last four batsmen were simply not good enough to handle it, probably all the later batsmen when they looked at the scoreboard saw "Choke" written there instead of the score. Vettori marshalled his resources well however even he would admit that he was helped to no small extent by the way the South African's played.

With the win, New Zealand wiped away some memories of their last tour of Bangladesh (the quarter-final was played in Mirpur) and would have left the country in good spirits looking forward to the winner of the England – Sri Lanka match as their semi-final opponents.

England vs Sri Lanka

This was expected to be a close game, especially after England won the toss (all the pundits had predicted that chasing would be difficult). England started cautiously with a new opening pair of Strauss and Bell. Both looked to be seeking to play out the initial spells of Malinga and Dilshan, however Strauss was unable to replicate his form from early in the tournament and was bowled. Bell and Bopara had a couple of useful partnerships with Trott (the new rock for England's batting) but the innings got some momentum only when Eoin Morgan was batting. England were still reasonably placed with about 180 odd on the board and about 7 odd overs to go, however the batting power-play exerted its influence over proceedings and after Swann got out first ball, England seemed intent on ensuring that they played out their 50 overs instead of hustling as many runs as they could. Trott's ability to anchor the innings was marred by his failure to accelerate and with the others unable to get to terms with the bowling, England probably finished about 20-30 runs short of what they could have achieved.

Sri Lanka was expected to have a tricky chase on its hands and Tharanga and Dilshan were uncharacteristically subdued in the beginning. Runs were being scored but not at the rate at which one expects from the successors to Jaysuriya and Kaluwitharana and England would have been hoping that they would be able to replicate the result from the 3rd quarter-final. However, it was not to be, the awaited break-through just did not happen and whatever England's bowlers tried was not good enough to separate the opening pair. Ultimately it was one of the most one-sided victories in a World Cup match (the Pakistan / West Indies being an earlier reminder of another) and England washed away all the good work of the winter and the Ashes with their World Cup campaign. While all the right noises were made by Strauss during the World Cup (we are here to win, etc.) it seemed as if the team was playing against their will and it seemed a huge effort to turn up on the cricket field.

In a tournament which carried so much importance for other teams, England's lack of enthusiasm stood out and they paid the price in being unable to summon up any reserves when they were needed.

Thus, of the four semi-finalists, three are from Group A with India being the sole survivors from Group B.

Semi-final prediction

New Zealand have been punching way above their weight and even their win against South Africa was 50% their own effort and 50% disintegration by South Africa. With this background, it is hard not to see Sri Lanka as firm favourites to win the first semi-final.

The second semi-final would be absolutely a pressure game with past results counting for nothing, simply because it is an India – Pakistan game. There are various reports of Shoaib Akhtar playing in the semi-final, but in my view, it would be a huge mistake for Pakistan to play him. Shoaib holds no terrors for anyone at the moment and it is likely that he will end up as cannon fodder for Sehwag and Tendulkar. It is hard to predict a winner, however I think India is likely to hold their nerve better and probably fear failure less than Pakistan, so I tip India to win.

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